Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
