A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
